📊 Portugal's economic news 🗞 January 2025

The Economic Service of 🇫🇷 of the French Embassy in Portugal monitors Portugal's economic and financial situation and publishes the main points in a monthly newsletter for the French and French-speaking community.

Below is a summary of some of the key economic data and news at the start of 2025. 🔗 Source : BRÈVES ÉCONOMIQUES PORTUGAL, Direction  générale du Trésor.

📈 Macroeconomic indicators:

Macroeconomic indicators	2023	2024	2025
GDP growth (%)	+2,3	+1,7	+2,2
Public balance (% of GDP)	1,2	1,0	0,3
Debt (% of GDP)	97,9	95,9	93,3
Unemployment rate (%)	6,5	6,4	6,4
Harmonised index of consumer prices (%)	+5,3	+2,4	+2,1

🤖 🏦 Companies:

• Portuguese companies are lagging significantly behind their European counterparts in the adoption of artificial intelligence.

  • According to Eurostat, just 8.63% of Portuguese companies say they have integrated AI into their processes.

  • By way of comparison, Denmark is top of the class with 27.6%, with Romania in last place with 3.1%.

• Portugal's Public Investment Bank (BPF) is preparing to launch a €6 billion credit line to stimulate new investment.

• 🛫 The Portuguese government has approved the bid by Vinci-owned ANA (Aeroportos e Navegação Aérea/Aerports and Air Navigation) to build a new airport (to be named Luís de Camões). This project involves the construction of 2 runways with a possible future extension to 4 runways. Estimated cost of the project = €8.5m.

💶 Prices, inflation, debt:

• Inflation rate in 2024 = 2.4%.

  • For 2025, inflation forecast to fall to 2.1% (according to the Bank of Portugal).

  • In December 2024, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were 28% higher compared to 2021.

• 🏠 Property market prices rose by 3.7% at the end of 2024.

  • According to Eurostat, rents have risen by 44% in Portugal since 2010, compared with 26% in the EU.

    
    

• €7.7bn = record level of consumer credit between January and November 202

Unemployment:

• Unemployment rate in December 2024 = 6.4% (lowest rate since August 2024).

🇪🇺 Budget plan and public debt:

• The Portuguese government forecasts a budget surplus of 0.3% in 2025.

• Public debt forecast for 2025 = 93.3% of GDP.

• Portugal's debt ratio is the 6th highest in the EU.

🧾 Simplification of tax procedures:

• Several tax simplifications have been announced by the government for 2025: more than 3,000 taxes will be modified with the aim of making it easier for individuals and businesses to manage their tax obligations (including IUC, ISV, IRS...).

🇫🇷 🤝 🇵🇹 Politics:

• 27-28 February 2025: State visit by President Emmanuel Macron to Lisbon and Porto. The last state visit by a French President to Portugal was in 1999 between Jacques Chirac and Jorge Sampaio. RQ: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has been President since 2016. The next presidential elections in Portugal are scheduled for 2026.

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